What's the Only Economics Number Voters See



In the annals of history, unexpected and quirky things happen. Sometimes the blame for these is wrongly placed and is hard to correct. One of those is what we normally call "the economy." Before the great depression of the 1930's, the narrative about how things were going in "the economy" was mostly local. The country was largely rural and how things were going in your community was attributed to the local county officials. There were "county farms" for the destitute and churches looked after people. I remember my farm wife grandmother saying she would make a plate of food for some who knocked on the door and were hungry. 

Then Roosevelt came along and told people he would help them. This (and perhaps other things I don't know about) helped change the narrative. "The economy" became the responsibility of the President and Congress. Yet, it has never been completely true that they are the reason times are good or times are bad. "The economy" is so complicated and always churning and changing so what the term refers to itself changes constantly. 

Trump showed some insight into the relationship between politics and "the economy" when he adlibbed a while back, "I got elected because of groceries." Grocery prices are what people see, not unemployment or GDP data. The irony is that Trump, as he always does, lost his focus on groceries and they are going up under his watch. A pundit speculates grocery prices and inflation in general are likely to bite Trump and Republicans.

Biden ramped up spending during the pandemic so people and businesses could stay afloat. Lots of goods were not available because supply chains broke down. When covid backed off there was pent up demand, people were buying and sellers raised prices. This was in full bloom when Harris ran for President and, as Trump observed, "groceries" got him elected. 

In retrospect, it seems like the economy was in a sweet spot by the time Trump took office. If he had just left tariffs alone, allowed the farm economy to prosper by selling to China and worked to hold down medical costs he could have taken credit for a very prosperous four years. Instead, he messed everything up. Groceries are killing him.  


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