It Still Seems Like Talarico Could Win Texas

Democrats have been burned so many times in recent decades they refuse to believe they can really win in Republican states. Texas is an example. Yet, everyone who talks to Texans says the same thing. Texans have questions about Talarico. But there is deep dislike his opponent, Paxton.

We all have a tendency to predict voting patterns on past experience. As Reagan once said, "In politics the unexpected often happens." There are other generalizations made by prominent politicians. Tip O'Neil wrote a book, All Politics are Local. I have that book. Tip says politicians are known locally and how they are perceived locally often supersedes national issues. Hubert Humphry said, "You cannot talk down to voters." To me, Trump and his version of the Republican Party are doing that.

Making outcomes even more difficult to predict are changes in demographics. Every day, some voters die and young people have birthdays moving them into the voting age. All of us know the old tend to think one way and the new another. Then there are people moving into and out of a state daily. In the case of Texas lots of Californians have moved in.

In the case of Texas and Talarico, there is the other thing I have discussed here often, religion. I don't know if he brought up his views on abortion and gays while campaigning or if he talked about them in other contexts and "blasphemy" is now being thrown at him. It doesn't matter. I think it is a genius political thing to stake out a position that aliens with the emerging views of younger voters. 

All in all, the soon coming elections are wonderful political theater.