Black Voters Have Made the Difference



When Mitt Romney ran against Obama, Republican polling told Romney just before election day he would win. Election night he watched the returns in black districts in Ohio. He knew he was defeated. Republican polls had treated black voter turnout as average. A large black turnout turned the tide in states Romney needed.

I don't understand why the turnout of black voters varies. We do know voter turnout varies among all groups. Logic would tell us, and voter drive activity reinforces, the prediction there will be a large black turnout in the coming election. It will be for Democrats but more meaningfully a vote against Trump and Republicans.

The link explains the gradiences of various groups. One I had not thought of is the thousands of people laid off from Federal jobs. A disproportionate number of these are black voters. They are the kind of people knowledgeable about elections and the organizing that precedes them. 

Our effort to understand electoral politics is helped by the 2024 election. Blue collar rural voters are not a huge percentage of voters. They helped put Trump electoral college numbers over the top. The election of Obama had something similar. He had big turnouts in the right areas.

All of us can speculate about where the juice, the emotional component, is in the upcoming Midterm election. There are so many reasons for me to be angry at Trump and Republicans. But these may not be important to variables like voter turnout. Something will be big and we will find out what it was after the election. 

I don't see the social issues of abortion, trans and Bible moving the election toward Republicans. Without them it seems like Republicans will have a tougher time.

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