Why is Trump Making His Second Term so Difficult


When Trump won office there was an uncomfortable amount of inflation. Grocery prices were up because covid had harmed production of some things and people had pent up demand from staying at home for a year or two. When things opened up, and salaries available, it helped pull prices up. As I write this, Trump is 10 minutes away from my place trying to put out the political fires he set.

If Trump had paid attention to history, or, had advisors who paid attention, he would have predicted production would rise, demand would level off and inflation would largely disappear. He could have said during his first six months, "I am working night and day to reduce inflation" even though he did nothing. Prices would have leveled off or come down and he could have taken a bow. Easy-peasy. 

Instead, he started fiddling with tariffs. The existing tariffs were the result no doubt of hundreds of hours of talk around the world and piles of correspondence. All countries thought they should get a better deal but the end result of everything was that China was making money and selling goods in the U.S. at low prices. U.S. farmers were selling grain to China and driving $70K pickups. Several other U.S. sectors were also selling their stuff to China and doing well. 

Trump could have said he was arguing with China night and day and beating them up in negotiations while actually playing golf. Leaving things alone he could have taken credit for high grain prices and cheap Chinese goods. In short, the economy, and society to some degree, had been off kilter during the Biden covid years but were righting themselves by the time Trump took office. He should have stepped back and allowed corrections to happen and then taken credit. 

Then, there are the undocumented. The economy was doing well when the pandemic hit. As the recovery was taking place, Trump rounded up the lowest paid workers leaving a shortage filled by higher wage workers. Then he was surprised to see costs and prices rise. Economists were not surprised. 

Trump seems a person who, when he sees in front of him several alternatives, looks at each and chooses the one with worst outcome. His term would have been an easy one by just choosing good ones.   


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