How About Some Demographics


In the last several Presidential elections Democrats have won the majority of voters. Republicans sometimes win the Presidential election because of the electoral college. As we saw in 2020, however, Republicans cannot outrun the majority all the time. The bigger the majority, the harder to outrun it with electoral college votes.

An interesting article in The Guardian pointed out questions in about current polling showing Trump leading in the popular vote. It asked what could have changed since 2020 to give Trump a popular vote majority? There is no explanation. Without an explanation, it is logical to conclude the polling is incorrect.

Then there are the demographic changes since 2020. Twelve million people died, mostly old and mostly Republicans voters. During this period 16 million young people were added to the voting rolls. A big majority are Democrats. 

So what happened to the undecideds? It turns out they are very few of them. I've always thought they were in the neighborhood of 20%. It is far less than 10%. So far as I know, there is no reason to believe any big shift in undecideds has happened since 2020. That Trump is polling so much better than he actually did in 2020 has no explanation.

One trait I attributed, rightly or wrongly, to Joe Biden was his ability to, using a sports metaphor, "see the whole floor." That is, he had spent decades working within the world of politics with its polls, frightened pundits, "undecided voters" and all the rest. He knew the weaknesses of polling and could understand that "undecided" did not mean, in most cases, unknown or unpredictable. I think he did not want to step down because he knew he was in a strong reelection position from watching the "whole floor." Yet, TV pundits and Party officials with less understanding were wringing their hands thinking his age would bring him down. I think he would have won in a wheelchair. Harris stepping up, however, is better in giving Democrats a likely two terms. 

It doesn't take a Harvard PhD in political science to see how Republicans view their odds. The topic of abortion was not mentions during 20 some hours of speeches at their convention. Trump did not mention it. To their credit, they are starting to count votes. If they had started counting votes back before the disastrous Supreme Court appointments they would be in better shape today.

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