Some Methodist Churches Left. Majority Remained. They Rejoice

A predictable series of events has taken place in the huge denomination called United Methodist. When the majority of churches in the U.S. wanted the right to employ a gay pastor or hold gay weddings the minority up and left. Those who remain held a conference recently. The Bishops attending said that since the departure of conservative churches it feels like a revival within the denomination. Now it will be possible, those remaining say, to move into the future seeking answers to complicated issues and welcoming a diverse membership.

Christianity in the U.S. follows demographics. Denominations that were founded in rural areas and have been unable to grow rapidly in urban areas to offset rural decline are seeing themselves decline. Some who have made a concerted marketing effort in urban areas are doing better. In the Methodist denomination, those who left tended to be churches with older members in rural areas and in the South. These churches will mostly die when their demographic of members dies. They will not be replaced with younger new members. If the remaining denomination can keep up a presence in growing urban areas the decline will be slower or even reverse the decline and grow. 

To illustrate the role of demographics, we can look at the histories and possible futures of two denominations both of Northern European origin and with a long history in rural middle North America. These are the Lutheran Church Missouri Synod and the Evangelical Covenant. The first, LCMS, has gone from 3 million members to 2 million. It is very hide-bound and not flexible in doctrine. Its churches remain heavily rural and the age of its membership continues to climb. Unless it grows into growing urban areas and/or attracts younger members it will continue to decline. So far as I can tell, it has no overarching strategy to stem its decline.

The Evangelical Covenant church's history has also been in the rural Middle America. It has more flexibility in its doctrine than LCMS.  Some years back, however, it embarked on an aggressive marketing program in urban areas of the Southwest and West. It now has more churches in California than in any other state. Instead of declining, its membership has grown from 400,000 to over 600,000. It could be that both the Evangelical Covenant and LCMS will have one million members in a decade or two. 

It seems almost obvious the two branches of Methodism will follow the same path, one branch growing at least somewhat, the other declining. Christian denominations need to realize they are in a contest that will end in brawl called, "The Last Man Standing." To survive will require clear thinking.