The Possibility of a Hugh Drop in World Population


What are called "Doomsday Scenarios" come along every so often. When they do not materialize the concepts they were based on are scoffed at. I think it is accurate to say the predictions sometimes prevent them from happening. Let's review what current thinking, leaving out religion and morals, are potential causes of future catastrophes: Unchecked disease, shortages of food/water, air pollution, weather changes (heat/cold, not necessarily the same as food/water shortages), nuclear disaster, war, inability to reproduce.

Carbon production is thought by many to be the reason our world's population may plummet. Stopping abortions or birth control will not reverse it (if carbon production is the main problem). It has been said many times on this blog it would be in the interests of the anti-abortion religious group to endorse enthusiastically good environmental policy. Instead, it does what is not in its best interest, opposes environmental protection.

A dramatically falling population is an interesting thing to contemplate. Certainly, it would be different and in some ways difficult. Our rural areas have been dealing with this for decades. Some countries have had populations aging faster than ours, Japan for example.

We call all recognize the Social Security problem, fewer paying in, more drawing out. We know there needs to be a good sized labor force and young people to staff health facilities filled with an aging population. That staff may not be available. What will our country, and others, be like?

Overall, what we think of as our (those who are living at that time) "standard of living" will have to be lower. I'll speculate on what that means. Less space for our houses. Less variety in our diets. Less travel. Fewer clothes in our closets. Public transportation instead of jumping in cars. 

On the positive side, technology and innovation may cover over a lot of problems we now contemplate. It might (or might not) be useful to looks back at past innovations on organizing societies. The early communists wanted an efficient society and make the best use of its land and labor. So, it commanded communal living. One kitchen and staff fed many instead of each having a kitchen and dining area. Many communal societies have existed. My wife and I enjoyed lunch with a communal group in ND. There are no kitchens in apartments. 

Our country cut back on everything during WWII. During Covid we did the same. We complain when we have everything. If we have less we will just complain about that--people will survive.

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