Water in the Ground Levels are Falling Rapidly

Water and auto traffic congestion are two topics we economists really like to dabble in. They are the perfect examples of "The Tragedy of the Commons." The Tragedy of the Commons is a concept recognized in Europe centuries ago. It happened went farmers lived in villages for support and protection but their animals fed in a commonly owned area. Over time, every farmer tried to increase his/her wealth by increasing his/her herd size. Why not? The cost of grass was pushed onto someone else. The inevitable result was overgrazing and a shortage of food. 

In democracies the temptation to cause the Tragedy of the Commons is so strong it happens regularly. Even though some people, those who understand economics and human behavior, see it coming it is not avoidable. It is almost inevitable. To be popular politically, elected officials need to hide scarcity and the higher prices that go with it. When new housing is needed, it can be located near jobs and shopping so people would not need to drive or they might walk. Or, it could be located farther away and tolls could be charged to pay for the streets needed for car travel. If there is no toll and the street is free or perceived to be free we have the Tragedy of the Commons in car congestion. Politics all but dictates roads without tolls and the Tragedy plays out even though predictable and avoidable. 

For decades, economists have been predicting the Tragedy will occur with water. Countless times every day, a politician somewhere says, "Good clean water is the right of every citizen." Economists warned if water is not priced as a commodity, shortages are inevitable. Now, shortages are here. 

A study by the NY Times found falling underground water levels across a vast portion of the U.S. The water tables are falling rapidly. Businesses who profit from using water can afford to keep drilling deeper. Cities and rural residences will be priced out of water in time if some rational pricing system for businesses is not forthcoming. In areas of conservative politics, there is no political appetite for treating water in anyway other than to make money with it. 

The price of water needs to include its replacement cost. Moving, i.e. hauling or piping water from elsewhere is the replacement cost. This cost is so high in desert areas of the U.S.  it will make farming and ranching mostly impossible. Population growth has pushed people into dry states like Texas, Arizona and Kansas. If current trends continue, water will be so expensive farming and other industries will have to close. Cities? There might be some hope for some towns/cities. They use tiny amounts of water compared to farms and ranches and might survive on rainfall or water imported from elsewhere.

Food for a growing population is subsidized by cheap water. Cheap water creates the Tragedy of the Commons. Ultimately then, a growing population itself creates the Tragedy. Higher prices for water and ultimately food will limit the number of children people have. Birth control including abortion need to be available to avoid the calamity now pointed in our direction.