Will This Denomination Survive


Growing up several of my high school friends went to a Lutheran Church Missouri Synod (LCMS) church in the next town over. Our closest neighbor couple went there. My best friend from back then died recently and I went to his funeral in that church. Recently I poked around the internet to see what has happened to that denomination. 

In 1970 LCMS membership peaked at 2.8 million. Thirty years, 2020, membership was down some 30% to 1.9 million. According to a presentation on YouTube membership by 2041 will be 1.1 million and continuing to fall. The link presentation is by a LCMS pastor who took lots of courses in economics. His view of the denomination's future is quite different from the view of its President.

I saw a presentation of the denomination's President where he celebrated data that shows LCMS parents have at least a slightly higher average number of children than parents of other denominations. The pastor with training in economics in the link said however, "there is no way to populate ourselves out of this decline." Most of the children in the LCMS who complete confirmation training leave the church so more children will not turn back the membership decline.

The LCMS decline is somewhat due to its demographics. It is located largely in the Midwest where population is not growing rapidly. It's average age of membership is going up. The average age of its preachers also is going up. The big decline, however, is simply that young people are streaming out of the denomination and, I assume, out of Christianity as well.

The link pastor's assessment of the denomination's decline and a possible solution involved some changes its leadership is rather cranky about. Thus, the pastor was very careful about how he talked of these changes. The only route to keeping or adding membership is to start new churches. However, to start new churches pastors are needed. The requirements to be a pastor in the denomination is a bachelor's degree followed by a divinity degree plus some pastor training. For most men (pastors must be male) it takes about a decade. After that, salaries are low and there is little job security. The person could be an attorney of other highly paid post.

The link pastor pointed out in a careful round-about way that it will be impossible to get pastors to start new churches with these requirements. It's apparent the leadership of this denomination is living in a dream world and will not wake up until it is too late. 

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