The Rate of Decline in Christian Numbers


I'm not very good at mathematics, but I do know there is both change and a rate of change. The rate of change is, I believe, called in mathematics the first derivative. This first derivative or rate of change is especially interesting when trying to figure out what has happened in societal change and what might be expected in the future. 

The headline of a NY Time article says "The fastest largest change ever in religion is underway." The article  discusses a book by three preachers who lament the drop in church attendance and membership as well as the polling data show new declines in those identifying as Christians. The three preachers offer ideas on how to slow the rate of change as well as the change itself.

This follows news from the weekend that the Southern Baptist Convention, the largest Protestant denomination, which has been losing 10% per year for a decade or more, is suddenly experiencing a more rapid rate of loss. We have to remember the SBC is a association of churches. These churches can drop their membership and remain functioning churches. Drops in SBC and its revenue can occur rapidly.

There have been predictions the rate of decline in self-identified Christians would accelerate. This is because young people are leaving at a higher rate than the generation of their parents. Their parents left at rates higher than their parents. We can't predict the future with certainty, but there is no reason to believe this generational pattern will reverse. 

The three preachers make believable observations about the future. It is that those denominations which build walls against leaving their group will experience the slowest decline. One which does this is the Mormon Church. Social and community life center on the church and those who leave lose their social and sometimes family circle. Yet, Mormon growth is slowing and it is easy to expect a decline. 

It is interesting to contemplate this has happened without any "marketing" budget or much push from non Christain groups. In the last few years national atheist groups have had a few ads, popular books and events aimed at making known their existence. I see very bitter remarks by Christians in atheist publications about the national ads featuring Ron Reagan. Compared to the sum of all Christian advertising by national denominations and local churches the amount spent be atheists is but a pittance.

I look at Christian websites and try to figure out what Christian leaders intend to do to reverse the decline we are seeing. What I see coming is a doubling down on dogmatic condemnation of non believers, advocated of gay rights and of abortion rights. These leaders see their own survival as being with however many true believers remain. Rally-round-the-flag is a desperate game but the only one in town.   

Comments

  1. Adam HeckathornJune 26, 2023 at 7:13 PM

    Like the mormons the religion I was in when out of the blue it occurred to me that it along with all religions it couldn't possibly be true, tells it's members to have no contact with people who quit believing. I figured I'll pay that price to live in reality.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. JonJune 26, 2023 at 7:35 PM

      Adam "I figured I'll pay that price to live in reality."

      Thanks, Adam. It's curious why so many Christan cults don't want people reading other material or having friends or spouses outside the faith. As we both know, atheists don't discourage other atheists from reading the Bible. Most atheists have read or continue to read it. Now, they chuckle at it, but they read it.

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