Most Analysts of the Midterms Missed the Point


If one reads the many pundits commenting on the recent midterms, all kinds of cause-and-effect explanations show up. "It was a repudiation of Trump" and "People did not buy the lies", etc. Underneath all these explanations were events well known to everyone. All one needs to know is what happened in very recent times in Kansas, Chili and Ireland. In those political events, young women in droves voted for abortion rights. How could anyone think something different happened in the U.S.?

Exit polls asked voters their age and how they voted. These polls showed that what happened in the Mid-Term was what happened elsewhere. Young women pushed the numbers over to Democrats in order to save their right to abortions. Men and older women did not help Democrats that much; it was about young women.

Exit polls show that of women 18-29 years old, 72% voted for democrats. As one said, "Voting Democrat is the only way forward." I don't think is hyperbole to say the Roe overturn drove them to the polls. 

Often on this site, men will mention their wives are not interested in the issue of male only clergy and by default abortion rights. This reflects, not a universal view held be women, but a view belonging to a particular demographic cohort. The links quotes a woman who has worked for a long time for women's rights. She points out that older women are not friends of rights for women. They join men in the limits long endorsed by male clergy. 

While it is always risky to predict the future, certainly this fits a long-term trend. Steadily young people continue to leave organized religion behind. As they do this they leave behind rules pushed by religion such as the demand to have lots of children and abortion prohibition. We are seeing young women obtain abortion medicines and traveling long distances for abortion services. Why would we expect them to vote in favor of the politicians and laws that forced these nuisance laws on them?


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