Polls are Turning on a Dime


We all know elections can turn out differently than poll predictions. Nevertheless, polls remain interesting to follow. Polls are now showing Democrats surging in some Senate races that were supposed to be easy for Republicans. The only explanation is the Supreme Court's overture of Roe.

Since there is no law against speculating on politics I'm allowed to do that. I've not seen my speculation anywhere else--though I haven't looked for it either. It involves the defeat of Liz Chaney. Trump Republicans are cheering about it. I think they would have been better of making certain she was nominated again in the party and reelected. Now she is a feral politician with revenge on her mind.

She says she is "thinking" about running for President. Surely she is not thinking about competing with Trump for the Republican nomination. She has to be thinking of running as an independent. That would be dramatic.

As an independent, her message would be, "Republicans who hate Trump, and, women who want abortion rights, I am a pedigreed Republican. You have the dilemma of voting for either Trump who you dislike or for a Democrat. Now you don't have to vote for either, you can vote for me." Trump would have started the campaign with, say, 45%, hoping to garner more than Biden's 45%. Now Chaney enters and takes none from Biden but 10% to 20% from Trump. Who would have the last laugh? 

In the psychology of our times, I see Trump as thinking to himself, "I have more audacity, nerve, bully ness, energy, balls and smarts than anyone else in politics." He may find there is someone, Liz, who has even more. 

At the heart of it all is the Kansas vote to keep abortions legal. This was more meaningful than political talk. It showed, like the Irish vote to legalize abortion, that when enough women show up and vote the same way it overpowers all the forces aliened against them.

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