If no Roe, How Much Will Abortions Decline


We all speculate about the future, I do it myself. A creditable set of reporters who work with abortion numbers and talk to people in the field have made a prediction about the effect of an overturn of Roe on abortion numbers.

We need to be reminded that several states will quickly put into effect almost complete bans on abortion. The decrease in abortions will only be about 13%. This is because a large number are now being done medically and, in states with ridiculous time requirements, a small industry of illegal abortions is already in place. The decrease will not be large because states that implement bans already have severe restrictions. Women have already learned how to work around the laws. The universal prediction is the only group who will give more births are poor. 

I've seen comments on other sites where abortion is discussed which claim overturning Roe is worth the effort if "one baby is saved." Would this person say a 45mph speed limit law would be worth it if "one adult life were saved?" My guess is the answer would be no. It would be no because, the person would say, our economy needs faster speed limits to economic reasons. The 30,000 highway deaths per year is a reasonable exchange for the benefits from driving faster. Perhaps someday someone will find a passage in the Bible that can be construed as in favor of fewer highway deaths. In the meantime, we will just allow the highway carnage to continue. This while screaming to save fetuses who are not human beings. Half of them die already in miscarriages. 

I read pharmacists in Mexico have stacks of abortion medicines right on the counters where people walk in. One would guess lots of it gets taken into the U.S., especially into right wing Texas. The link above points out abortion pills have a good shelf life so any sexually active woman can keep them on hand in her home in case of a pregnancy. That is, of course, unless crazy legislators pass search laws against all women of suspicious ages. 

That the reduction in abortions will only be 10-15% will not be important to anti-abortion zealots. That is because they will be happy if women expend time and money to get abortions. Anti-abortion is not about "saving babies," it is about harassing women.

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