Real Conservatives Should Advocate Against Big Risk

Having been up to my chin in local government for several decades I'm still drawn to areas facing crises' and am curious about how local politics responds. We all know state and national politics are of at least some influence so that is interesting as well.

Today there was a long article about the ice melt in Iceland. Throughout the north glacier areas ice is melting faster than was predicted. Gravity, of course, moves the water around the world. The article about Iceland explains the problem is bigger than melting ice. The huge weight of the ice is leaving with the melt. When that weight is gone the land, including the ocean floor, begins to rise. The floor has already risen enough to disrupt fishing areas because of shallow sea levels.  As the oceans floor rises the water flows down to lower areas of the world. One low area is Miami Beach.

I look at the Miami Beach municipal site occasionally to see what is being discussed. Mostly, the official talk is optimistic. There are several separate projects to offset rising water. Streets and buildings are being lifted. Sand and soil are being hauled in. Concrete barriers in some places are being constructed. The underlying soil of the City is porous so pressure of the higher oceans forces up water into neighborhoods away from the beaches. 

In all of this some decision has to be made about how high the water will reach eventually. Since no one knows exactly how high the water will rise scientists have named the lowest and highest levels with probabilities of each. The City of Miami Beach has chosen the lowest projection as its favorite and the heights of roads, homes and businesses are based on this.

As one would expect, there are plenty of engineers and scientists elsewhere who think Miami Beach is playing a fool's game. I'm reminded of meetings in Fargo about saving Trollwood Park on the north end. It was threatened by erosion which was caused by a bend in the Red River. There were optimists saying the City/Park District could build pillars to block the water's attach on the area that included a historic building. An engineer from the Federal government said at the meeting, "Attempts by local governments to block erosion at bends in rivers are popular. Most of the time they end in surrender." The ultimate decision was to surrender.

If there were such a thing as "political conservatives" in politics, one would think they would advocate preparing for the worst projection rather than for the best. Republican dominated areas like Miami Beach have politicians, as well as Florida's Governor, who claim to be conservative but walk a tight wire of risk.