Two Predictable Trends: Conservative Organized Religion Trends Down, Those Who Claim no Religion Trend Up


I've been saying for years, the marriage of right-wing religion and politics will increase liberal branches of the faith and shrink conservative branches. Leaving out Pentecostalism, which is a little different, this is happening. The sociologist in the link believes a significant portion of "nones" are refugees from right wing religious politics. Thus, while liberal denominations are growing only slightly, she is certain "nones" represent growth in the liberal branch of Christianity.

It has become more difficult to label Christian groups so measuring what is happening to them is a little problematic. Self-labeled "evangelicals" include a large political group which considers only the politics but is not active in the organized Christian faith. These are referred to often as "Trump people."

It seems to me the deep anti-abortion laws of Texas and Mississippi and their Supreme Court support is a product of this odd political twist. Anti-abortion is a religious movement project but has a lot of support from a Protestant political wing. This latter group has a grievance about economics and its social status and incorporates this grievance into the political evangelical operation. For the Texas law, sometimes called, "report your sister had an abortion," anti-abortion politics has to have a lot of red hot juices. So far in Texas, it has not had them.

The truth of all of this will be seen eventually in abortion statistics. We know abortion numbers must be falling in the states of Texas and Mississippi. To offset this, business at clinics in neighboring states is rising. No cases have shown up in Texas of people turning in their relatives, friends and neighbors who got abortions. We don't know, and may never know, the avenues for distributing abortion medicines and the volume. What we can predict is politicians and clergy are happy with the law because it harasses women. Even if abortion numbers are not down dramatically, they will have something to brag about. 

In politics, there is always another shoe to drop. While Texas and Mississippi have gotten away with draconian anti abortion laws, these have driven people away from churches. It may be that without as many churches anti abortion politics will be hard to sustain.   

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