The Secular Transition from Religion
Surveys continue to show a decline in Christianity in the U.S. and Europe. Seldom is there a broad review of what is happening or an explanation of the trajectory. Here is a Ted Talk where a social science professor from the University of Essex who specializes in social science data explains clearly and simply what is happening. He sees the inevitability of loss, not only of Christianity, but of all religion.
The loss is taking place roughly at the same rate as deaths. Mostly, each death is that of a religious person and each birth is a person who will not be religious. The old admonition that religious people should not practice birth control because babies of religious parents will be religious does not affect the trajectory. Past generations were born into cultures that were religious. New generations increasingly are not. As the link confirms, cultures determine religion.
Religions today and since recorded history have told followers their truths are timeless. Yet we learn, even in the Bible, religious ideas are not timeless. The Bible itself refers to other gods and followers of these gods. That tells us those who wrote the Bible were aware gods come and go. Why would we ignore this and/or believe it does not apply to us when it applied to all previous human history? Religious ideas were never timeless in the past. It follows they are not timeless today.
The argument made by many Christians is the faith will return to popularity. The link points out there is no reason to believe it will return. When it leaves the culture as it is doing, the forces that once made it popular will be gone forever. There is not, for example, a cultural history of teaching most children in the U.S. Hinduism and Islam. We don't expect numbers in these religions to rise because they are not important in our culture. Christianity of the future will be like Hinduism and Islam are right now. Children of the future will have no familiarity with Christianity just as children of today are not familiar with Hinduism and Islam. The link explains that for decades polling and church attendance has shown each generation of parents is less religious than the previous generation.
The growth of Christianity in Africa and China also holds little hope for its future. Statistically, Christianity and religion of all kinds slips as modernity advances. Thus, growth of Christianity in Africa, for example, will continue only as long as modern cultures do not develop. If history repeats itself, Africa will become a modern continent and Christianity slip away like it is doing in other countries.
The inevitability of a secular transition is confirmed each year as new data arrives.
Yes, restraint from restraint. The results of the preponderance of the secular are being " confirmed each year as new data arrives". Political excesses, drug abuse in excess, baby daddies, not fathers. Mothers with multiple baby daddies, Large growth of murders, drive buy shootings, car jackings,, flash mob theft, protests with lootings and burnings, (consider Mpls. Licqour stores and drug stores for the booze and narcotics looted among other business. (It's in the news). corruption, losses of millions / billions of dollars from the funding for covid victims, (Not much advertised as of yet). Just examples of the "secular transition." I may be wrong, but "statics" say different. Thank goodness for the internet. So much would not becoming more clear without it.
ReplyDeleteHelper-- The long-term trend in crime (robberies, murders, etc.) has been down for several years. Might be up a bit since covid; suicides are I've read. You are correct the long-term trend for marriage is down. That is not a crime. I just finished reading a book about Al Capone. Back then more people in churches, more murders and robberies.
ReplyDeleteFrom what I have read, more money was stolen by private "defense firms" (read crooks) who claimed to be helping during the Afghan and Iraq wars than with the covid funds. I agree too much was stolen in the latter.
Jon; RE. long term trend in crime) Don't you read the Trib? Perhaps short term is the new long term.
Delete" I didn't "mention long-term trend for marriage is down". A 'fraudian " (spelling intended). slip perhaps? These days, a baby shower with the full names of both parents is printed, (not married).
Also didn't mention church attendance, but since you brought it up, Virtually everyone in our township, and around were active. There were a couple suicides by others, and car deaths.
re. Capone; Looks like Chicago and others corruption has continued without the help of Capone, and murder has branched out into gangs and drug related activities. Not so much in a corn field.
Where there is big money, there is greed and corruption.
Re. covid funds, I see there are BILLIONS missing. NYTimes.
Then there is cyber crime. Betcha none of them are in church Sunday. (since you mentioned churches).
You must admit I didn't mention church or God. You did however emphasize the secular.
helper-- We've been through this discussion of crime rates before. You determine the level and trend of crime in the United States by reading the Minneapolis Trib. I use national crime statistics. You and national crime statistics reach exactly the opposite conclusion.
ReplyDeleteYes, my blog was about the transition to a secular society. You brought up crime. That being the case, we can only reach one conclusion, the less people attend church and profess being in the faith the lower the crime rate.
Whenever you are losing an argument, you insult my career teaching economics. It's time right now to bring that up.
Jon; Sheesh.
Delete1. You brought up your career, and it's related pathology, not me.
2. You don't want to admit crime.
3. re. national crime; Mpls is not an island. Consider Portland, Chicago, Cleveland and suburbs, etc. Thanks to your internet, anyone can see your accusation of provincial knowledge falls flat. "I use national crime----bla bla bla" is loud and exposed elitism
4. The foundation of your premise fails.
5. I would like to see the stats. of family history and religious affiliation and activity of all the criminal actors in the headlines across the entire country. I believe you might be even more defensive.
I won't be surprised if you don't have the guts to print this.
helper--
Delete"2. You don't want to admit crime." WHAT?? I wrote about national crime statistics. I admitted there is crime but it is decreasing. What I won't agree is that the largely political events, that included some criminal acts in larger cities, was a "crime wave" or increased crime statistics. Long term statistics of crime have fallen. Mayors across the country did not want federal troops because they correctly concluded the problems could be solved by local officials and dialogues with the groups involved. The damage was quickly repaired and life in big cities moved on. It reminds me of 40+ years ago when some NDSU students proposed a Spring Break party in Zap, ND. "Zip to Zap" was born and became a national event. The next morning the conservative Chicago Tribune had a HUGE headline, "ZAP SACKED." After the beer bottles were picked up there was almost no damage, $200, as I recall.
The same kind of headlines were appearing during Black Lives Matter: downtowns sacked, out of control danger, etc. These headlines were there, not to accurately report what was going on, but to sell papers. They were further hyped by Republican politicians trying to shame Democrat Mayors. As any objective observer would have predicted, these cities have returned to normal.
My reference to falling crime and increasingly secular society being related was tongue in cheek. I don't believe crime or morality in general is related to how many people join and attend church or spend Sunday mornings at Starbucks. Christianity neither helped nor harmed society. When it is gone things will just move on as cities have done after being "destroyed" by Black Lives Matter.
"anyone can see your accusation of provincial knowledge falls flat..(by my reference to national statistics)"
I am guilty of saying that when someone, like you, uses your regional newspaper headlines instead of national statistics to judge the direction of national events I am accusing you of being provincial. I'm proud to plead guilty.
I could have said the same thing anywhere in the country. You will notice I did reference other places.
Deletedon't admit crime, what? I guess all the carjacking, theft , and flash gang theft is not crime. Include in this all the looting in several cities. I heard one person say they needed a good riot because his whiskey cabinet was empty. I don't know how to get the stats of these fine upstanding secularists, but I would be willing to wager most every one has a baby daddy, and has not darkened the door to a church of any kind, or if they did, they rejected it as you are so proud of.
Deletehelper "You will notice I reference other places."
ReplyDeleteOther places where newspapers are hyping up events to sell papers? Or, the Trib hyping up other places. And, newspapers that quote Republican reps in their areas trying to hype up things for their own political benefit.
Best you remember Joe Friday from Dragnet, "The facts, ma' am, just the facts."
I don't think the Trib or the NY Times are the voice of Republicans. There are other reliable sources. Perhaps you look for those who agree with you. Like Pravda?
Deletea few questions for old Jon. what annual base are you using when you say that crime is decreasing? the 1990s? are serious crimes (e.g homicides) decreasing? not a few cities (e.g Philly, Chicago have set new homicide records in 2021). don't think that murder can be sloughed off so cavalierly. is so-called white collar crime increasing or decreasing? what about human trafficking, drug trafficking, sex crimes. is the so-called decrease attributable to a decrease in non-serious crime? or to the decimalization of certain minor crimes? or is prosecutorial insouciance a factor? and. although it is not a crime per se has Jon got anything to say about the deterioration of political discourse: more lying, more crude, unfair rhetoric? what about the obvious increase of casual violence in society (as in airplanes). what about domestic violence? up or down? in fine, it seems to me that old Jon has a lot of explaining to do. obviously he is just trying to alibi our troubled society. say anything to get atheism off the hook?
DeletePew Research reports significant increase in murder. (a crime). lollipop theft however is down.
Deletetsm-- It's hard to believe I am having an argument with supposedly educated people about this. The government collects data on crime. You can look up this data online, why and how it is collected, then argue with those who collect it. I am just reporting this data.
ReplyDeleteApparently, TV and newspaper stories has left the impression crime is worse than it has ever been. I suppose at any point in history this impression is created. It is like the impression there is more sin in the world than ever in history.
So, I suggest you approach the issue of crime as I advised Helper to do, "The facts, Ma'am, just the facts."
Maybe murder isn't a crime in Jon's world
Deletehelper--You are becoming careless like Matt. His normal practice is to post a reference but not read it. Most of the time, I can say that with confidence having read most of his post references, they do not say what he says they said.
DeleteIn you case remember this. I said the LONG TERM trend in crime is down. In the reference you posted it says there has been a bubble of murders in 2019-20. Further down where you did not read it says the murder rate today is lower than it was in 2010.
Crime statistics are not easy to interpret. Is it convictions, reported to police crime, unreported to police crime and so on? Whatever the method, crime has not taken over the U.S. I get mailings and phone calls from Republicans. Invariably they talk of crime taking over the country. Callers and mail parrot closely Nixon's hammering on "students and hippies." After he got in office nothing much changed--except that he did exactly what the students and hippies wanted, end the Vietnam war. Nothing much has changed in politics.
bosh. seems to me that you just dodged some very relevant questions. as you say, just the facts. you are the one making the assertions here. so maybe it's incumbent on you to provide a few details, as requested.
ReplyDelete