Underestimating the Number of Young Adults who Plan Never to Have Children

Here is survey which points to a lower fertility number than the current one which is already low and falling. This survey questioned both men and women. Most surveys question only women.

I've discussed here often that fewer children and a lower population appear to increase the odds of human survival on the planet earth. Sure, there are questions raised about this. Not every single one has been answered with 100% certainty. But when the problems associated with a smaller population are compared to the problems of overpopulation it's a rock solid conclusion too much population is worse.

The problem with a lower birth rate is simple: Taking care of old people is a labor intensive industry. With a smaller labor force it will be harder to staff care facilities. Perhaps technology will help with some of this care. There is a positive fiscal note. With fewer people needed to take care of children more are available to take care of old people. 

One of the ironies of this drop in births is found in conservative politics. Conservative Protestant politics is against taxes including taxes for public education. If tax money were funneled to private Christian school systems it is possible they could cut, at least a bit, the cost of K-12. Even if this happened, the anti tax part of conservative politics would keep churning and less and less of education costs in private or religious schools would be paid from tax dollars and more from the pockets of parents. 

The cost of educating a child has to be added to the already considerable cost raising a child. All of us know all the other costs, health care, transportation, lost job hours, etc. Thus, conservative politics is in part responsible for the drop in fertility. Catholics who are all in for Republicans against abortion are also putting pressure on couples to have abortions by supporting low-tax politics. There can be no doubt whatsoever that dumping lots of tax money into child care and childhood education will reduce at least a bit the number of abortions and persuade some couples to have children they would not have otherwise.

Lower fertility is changing so many things. Where I live there is an astounding number of proposed apartments with nearby bars and entertainment venues. To me it signals developers and planners expect a lot of young people will not have children and will want to live in an urban and cosmopolitan setting. 

Fertility rates may drop a lot from the low point where they are right now.