Afghanistan Security Could Use More Sociology and Less Math and Science


President Biden's decision to pull U. S. troops out of Afghanistan illustrates the limits of technology. There is an indigenous population in that country which opposes the war lords. The troops opposing the war lords are those employed by the Afghan government. What are the prospects those fighting on behalf of the government will be able to hold onto some part of that country?

If things had been done differently, the odds would be much better. The mistake of the U.S. has been to teach military techniques to the natives which use money and technology that will not be available after the U.S. leaves. By not studying the culture of Afghan people and providing them with equipment and military techniques which mesh with their available level of money and technical capabilities we have left them in a no-win situation. 

The U.S. method of fighting the Taliban is to called drone strikes or airborne missile attacks. Without these the government army is headed for defeat. The Taliban uses resources available with limited budgets and technology and lower levels of education like pickup trucks and AK 47's. This is what the government's army needs to use. 

Myths and the misunderstandings that go with them are present in the highest levels of our government. According to former Secretary of State Colin Powell, President W. Bush invited him to watch real time video of the U.S. invasion of Iraq. When Bush saw Iraqis ignoring the invading U.S. troops he asked, "Why aren't they cheering?"

There is a similar myth about forming a Western style military and political system in Afghanistan. It is foreign to the people who live there. Loyalty to their family and tribe comes before loyalty to the central government. We assume they worry about who runs their country and this may not be important to lots of people.

Since the 9/11 attacks came out of Afghanistan we can all wonder about that happening after we leave. From what I've read the thinking is our military can watch the country from satellites and drones. Also currently the nasty schemers are operating in Africa, not Afghanistan. 

More input from the social sciences surely would help prevent mistakes like Afghanistan and Iraq from happening again.

Comments

  1. HenryApril 26, 2021 at 12:16 PM

    Any government that is propped up is destined to fail when the support is withdrawn. Someone should study MacArthur and Japan. That was a very seamless transition from super radical government to peaceful government. Contrast that with Truman losing China, a peaceful nation gone rogue communist, now building the largest military in the world.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Jon LindgrenApril 26, 2021 at 3:12 PM

      Henry re: propped up government will fail

      Seems like that is the case here. One exception might be India. There are assassinations, etc., but it is a functioning democracy still like the one the Brits set up there. Maybe there were good seeds planted in the culture prior to being a colony. Bangladesh also functions as a democracy though the poorest country in the world. Maybe some generations into the future something good will happen in Afghanistan.

      Delete
  2. Bryan KApril 28, 2021 at 4:43 AM

    When this argument was put forth in 2001 to 2002, it fell on deaf ears. It's the reason why we should not have invaded, especially with the Afghanistan government willing to negotiate for the surrender of Bin Laden.

    "You're either with us or against us".

    Memo to future presidents: Ultimatums are almost always a bad idea.

    ReplyDelete

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