Barna Group: One in Five Churches Will Close in the Next 18 Months

 


After surveying many Pastors the Christian Barna Group found much more pessimism now than they did a few months ago. At the beginning of the pandemic the majority of preachers thought their membership was committed to their church, would participate in whatever worship the church had to offer and would donate as they had in the past. A more recent poll found things have not played out that way.

Large denominations like the Methodists have found national giving down by 20%. Amounts of other reporting denominations reported declines in giving both above and below the number. 

Eighteen months is a time period that goes beyond the predicted beginning of vaccinations for the disease. We don't know yet that it will be successful. I read today it may be somewhat successful but not entirely so. This certainly would complicate the return of various activities to the level they were before.

We would all predict that if the economy does not recover rapidly this will hold down donations of all kinds including those to local churches.

As an outsider one can see why the pessimism. A recent poll showed that over half of people who regularly do not "believe the gospel." So why would people go to church if they do not believe what is preached there? I'm guessing some go for the social life. Others may like the preacher. Maybe some have nothing else to do. I've never seen a questionnaire study asking people who do not believe the gospel why the go to church. 

If some do not return to church after the pandemic we would expect it would be among those who do not believe its tenets. Those not returning would be among that 50% one would guess. If revenue is down 20% this may be the amount formerly paid by those who have been going to church but are not believers.

The next year or so will be a good time to watch cultural change. I think it will reaffirm churches and politics follow the culture around like puppy dogs. 


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