When Do We Cast Lots to Predict the Future

The widely different predictions about the virus have been matched by widely different predictions about the economy. When we are dealing with uncertainly there are always those who claim certainty. 

I have a friend who told me God instructed him to go into a certain profession. He failed twice. He said God then told him to do something else which is working much better. I don't know what would have happened it he had not had his religion to guide him.

Proverbs 16:30 tells us divine will is reflected to how the lots fall. Some societies have made decisions by the chief or the shaman tossing shells or bones. They believed in a higher power.

Nancy Reagan made decisions about her life and that of her husband based on astrology. She did this until it became public knowledge. People shamed her into believing she was supposed to pray. The friend I wrote about above did not do astrology but prayed like Nancy was supposed to do.

There is always uncertainty and we humans mostly don't like it. Some pray. Others do scientific modeling like that we have seen about the Corona Virus. We have seen only some predictions have turned out to be correct and there remains great uncertainty. The entire world wishes it knew what to expect next but no one can really tell it what is going to happen.

My own field of economics is home to a branch that does models meant to predict the future. That branch of economics has never interested me because it is so fraught with unknown variables. I'm not sure it is helpful to society. Other branches like the models for how firms and consumers behave are helpful to some extent in my view.

From what I have read, Presidents Obama and Trump had much different ways of dealing with the uncertainty of a global pandemic. It appears Obama ordered professionals to prepare for a bad pandemic. Trump was more optimistic and dismissed staff who had the responsibility to prepare. 

Neither had a way to eliminate uncertainty. I'm just glad neither said he based his decision on rolling dice or on what he thought God had told him about the future.