Is Coronavirus Protection Politically/Economically Sustainable
The President has hinted everything will almost normal by Easter. This is not what people who study the spread of virus are saying. If behavior normalized, "packed churches for Easter services", the disease will spread faster and farther.
To me there are two questions. What level of distancing will still allow the economy to generate the money it takes to treat sick people? A poor country cannot provide much medical care. Second, will people vote for political candidates that protect their health long term or will they vote for candidates who claim this is much to do about nothing and promise to drop all the distancing precautions?
On the economics question, it seems like rules can be loosened enough for the economy to limp along better than it is. If people are allowed to "go wherever they please" but are required to remain three feet from each other lots of economic productivity and wealth creation could continue. Exception would be made for health services, barbers, etc., who take some kind of precautions. Entire industries would be damaged, however. Requiring three feet of separation means every church, concert, political rally, airplane and restaurant would accommodate only 1/3 or 1/2 the paying customers. Revenue loss would kill most of them. I don't know what could be done about schools and universities.
In politics, voters may elect politicians who are willing to harm those who vote for them. They are already doing that with climate change, why not with coronavirus?
We all know that if a vaccine comes along soon lots of these problems will evaporate. If a vaccine does not come along soon, or, is impossible to invent, some industries and behaviors that have been here since forever will be gone.
Jon,
ReplyDeleteFor transparencies sake I confess I know less about politics and economics than I do about religion and that’s not saying much.
Some Americans will pull a gun over a roll of TP. Tolerance becomes single ply in a hurry around here. A female Fox News host whined about social distancing preventing her and her friends from getting a manicure and their hair done. Some white nationalist zealots now embrace “Accelerationism” to hasten society’s collapse. Apparently one tactic is for members infected by COVID-19 to intentionally propagate the disease. My daughter is working 10-12 day shifts doing triage and PPE training at Hennepin County Medical Center in Minneapolis while a home bound acquaintance of hers is boasting on Facebook about reorganizing her vast collection dental floss.
I read with the help of the Federal Reserve corporations can parlay the $500B handout into $4.5T. I think that is a 900% increase. Meanwhile the 2019 Social Security COLA increase is 1.6% for retired workers. I think the corporate dark money will keep flowing as many wage earners will be kicked to the curb. A $1000 cash payment to the latter is today’s version of “let them eat cake”, though it might buy some votes.
The American politics of deception has reached its zenith. We’re post-truth awash with alternative facts. Standard operating procedure includes enhanced concealment, misdirection, denial, and disinformation. News casts are political porn designed to over stimulate emotions rather than inform. To quote Tony Bender a columnist published on the Inforum website, “Congress is doing what it does best, acting like it's the last day of Burning Man and all that's left to eat is the brown acid. The good news is, they're making sausage. We'll see how it goes down later.”
https://www.inforum.com/opinion/columns/5014950-Bender-Save-the-rich
Toward answering your two questions, my guess is our perverse form of capitalism will survive, the rich will be saved, the right will hold their noses and the left will remain invertebrate.
Ardy B Interesting observations. You are correct certainly this bailout like all others will include a lot of money directly going to large corporation. W. Bush bailed out Goldman Sachs (or whoever it was) and Obama General Motors. I never understood the bank bailout, would not some other bank just pick up the business. I've heard GM will soon make all of their vehicles in other countries. The distribution of wealth and income continues to become more unequal.
DeleteAll of those over arching issues aside, I hope Congress can pay people enough to keep them afloat until things get rearranged. I read McConnell or some Republican tried to stop the money bill because the payments to unemployed individuals were too high. Republicans have always been preoccupied with their sociological/psychological theory that going without money or health care motivates people. There is truth there but they carry it too far.
Even with the bailout money hidden in the bill for corporations and special interests (money for the Center on Performing Arts in DC) it seems to me mostly well done. Most disturbing to me about Washington just now is Trump playing his "victims" mind game. It makes me concerned many people will not discipline themselves. Even some well known preachers are saying precautions must be dropped soon.
We can be hopeful about most Americans, however. Hubert Humphrey say politicians who
WHOOPS ...who "talk down" to the public often don't win elections.
DeleteJon March 27, 2020 at 11:04 AM
DeleteSo you feel a good balance was struck between focusing recovery monies on the health of corporations and the stock market versus support for household incomes and workers that produce goods? Both are important but we need supplies of certain things now. CEO’s and corporate board members aren’t going to sew protective masks. I think we are in a “war” against a disease. I don’t know was the stock market, the viability of corporations, and dividends to shareholders the primary focus during WWII? I read Trump finally woke a bit from his myopic attention to economic indicators, popularity polls, passing the buck and disparaging anyone stating their medical equipment shortages and ordered GM to retool and make some medical ventilators. The guy can get shamefully petty.
Ardy B "The guy can get shamefully petty."
DeleteThat is a good description, I'd call it an understatement. What he is doing now, paying to the frustrations of people by implying if he had his way everything would be open by Easter is absolutely shameful.
I agree the Federal Government should now, and should have in January, use its powers to direct production of needed medical supplies, equipment and personnel. As far as paying the public I wrote a while back people need enough money to meet their current needs and unemployment payments do not do this. I think what is in the bill goes at least a ways to do this. I don't think money needs to be spent to save the various industries--but that is Washington.
I don't claim to understand a lot about Washington but I got a peak some years ago. I was on the Garrison Conservancy Board. We were trying to get money for a pipeline from the Missouri River to Fargo. We were directed to put a lot of money in the bill for agencies that had nothing to do with the project. The reason was so those agencies would support it. Terrible, but that's politics.
Jon March 28, 2020 at 6:45 AM
DeleteThanks Jon. Politics to a large extent is about distributing public money to private wallets e.g. welfare payments to individuals and corporations. Both can misuse it. I guess now with the global spread of capitalism and automation there is no shortage of labor to temper the collateral damage visited on the many by the economic rapture of a few. As Mnuchin said rampant unemployment is irrelevant. Perhaps in an even broader sense than he meant.