Abortion, Gay Rights and the 2020 Election


I blogged a few weeks ago that 2020 Presidential election would be about abortion and gay marriage. I still think that is the case.

I'm thinking about this just now because in a few minutes I'll be going to the Iowa Caucus. Mine is just a couple blocks from our condo.

My reason for thinking these two issues will be big goes like this. We all know there are states where the electoral college is already decided for one party or the other, California for Democrats, Mississippi and North Dakota for Republicans. A few that tipped for Trump in 2016 went for Obama both elections before 2016. What circumstances might tip them back to a Democrat in 2020.

The states I'm most familiar with that seem in play for either party are Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Iowa. All four of these states have large agricultural sectors. It isn't only farmers but the large infrastructure behind farmers, machinery sales, livestock, crop inputs and the local coffee shop.

To this set of people, the Democratic nominee will ask an old question, "Are you better off or worse off than you were four years ago." I've never really like this political tactic because Presidents can't, for the most part, "manage" the economy. But in this case, Trump himself cases a good deal of the problems by his trade fiasco.

Those who come up short from Trump's trade gambit will then be confronted with the same question as in 2016. "Look, he is not perfect. But he has promised to appoint judges who will overturn Roe v Wade." 

In 2020 a similar theme is inevitable, "Look, he made farm prices fall. But, he appointed anti abortion judges. You have to reward him with your vote." How this set of voters answers will, in large part, determine the 2020 election outcome.

This is why the 2020 election will revolve around abortion and its sister issue gay marriage.

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