The Shared Psychology of the Stock Market and Religion

For many decades I have read daily commentary on the stock market and the economy. Over that time I developed considerable skepticism about predicting what either will do. While thousands of people make a living "predicting" what the future will bring they miss huge signals. It is impossible to see the signals before a change happens because they are obvious only in retrospect.

It is fun to occasionally read a writer who analyses the entire pundit and investor community. He makes observations that, to me, can also be seen in religion. His article is quite long but I'll mention a few observations that I found interesting.

The credibility of any idea is based how much one needs a prediction to be true. While this statement was made about the stock market of macro economy, it applies to religion. If someone needs heaven and hell to be true it is more likely he/she will believe them to exist.

History has surprised us over and over. Predictions are still being made. In religion, this could apply to church membership. There have been times church membership has fallen before but came back. Predicting is will happen again is leaving out the frequent surprises. The same is true of predicting church membership will fall as it has been for years.

Predictions are easiest when the same thing has happened over and over. Thing also seem secure just before the patterns of the past change. There were Pagan leaders who thought Christianity was just a passing fancy. Today there are Christian leaders who think secularization is a passing fancy. It seems to me safer to predict things will be different in the future instead of saying they cannot change.

Predictions are often made to enhance the careers of predictors. Whether predictions appear on the financial or religious pages, the person making the prediction may not have your interests at heart.

I'm sure readers have experienced much of this in their own lives.