Republicans Will Try Not to Overturn Roe

While Republicans, and a few Democrats, talk endlessly about overturning Roe it is wise to stop and consider the calculations of politicians. They want, first and foremost, to get elected and reelected. The truth is they chances of winning are best if it appears as though Roe might go down. Their chances of winning fall if Roe does go down. For a few decades we have seen them conduct business as if that is exactly the calculation they are making. They have promised repeal of Roe but never quite achieve it.

A way to understand this might be remember how fundraising on radio and TV work. How many time have you heard, "We need to raise another $1,000 during the next hour to meet our goal." The idea is, "We're almost there." We're almost there is the fund raising technique and voters outreach of anti abortion politicians and the entire Republican party.

When politician talk about the public, they know there is a rule they must not ignore. It is the "what have you done for me lately" rule. That is, saying you did something for voters last year does not mean voters will be grateful this year. They want something this year as well.

Anti abortion politicians know that if they navigated an overturn of Roe from Supreme Court nominees their political lives would be in danger. After Roe, what would they promise from the next Supreme Court nominee?

What anti abortion voters fail recognize are what their politicians face. Instead of demanded they engineer an overturn of Roe, they should simply understand abortion is a personal matter they can follow in their own lives and they should butt out of other people's lives.

Comments

  1. Matt NoahJuly 6, 2018 at 8:18 PM

    This is a quaint theory but misses the mark. The overturning of Roe v. Wade is not going to be a legislative effort where the votes of Congressmen are counted. Roe will be overturned where it began, in the US Supreme Court. Either the present US Senate or the next US Senate will confirm the next Justice. Chances are pretty good that President Trump will appoint another Justice like Neal Gorsuch and that the present Senate will vote to confirm him. The next case involving abortion that reaches the US Supreme Court could then be the overturning of Roe. It could also wait until another Justice retires or dies. Another Gorsuch-like Justice would then return the Court to a truly respectable body as it was always meant to be. The theatrics and politically motivated run of Justices could be slowly eliminated. "Roe" will be just one of many "settled matters" that will be set straight.

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  2. SimpleJuly 7, 2018 at 3:28 AM

    I think there will be a lot of attempts by state legislators that are "true believers" to try to overturn Roe and other rulings. They will want to be the one who wrote the bill that overturned Roe, gay marriage, school prayer, birth control, teaching of evolution, porn, and church-state separation. Their fellow GOP state legislators will lack the will to stand up to them.

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